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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still