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Growing worries have emerged about the potential of warfare involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has provoked a fierce war of words.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in 2023 that his country's sea access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have frequently been strained. After a decades-long fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people died.

Current Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrea's coastal city of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and implied the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing access to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

In the face of continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to concise remarks on X from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a policy of reclaiming lost territory.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that attempts to legitimise "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Border

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has broadcast completion events of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The head of human resources department of the military, General Hachalu, recently said in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then controlled by the UK forces before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war occurred, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their common border, resulting in hostilities in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two endorsed a statement that the hostilities was concluded – a move that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in Ethiopia's previous civil war in Tigray.

Yet ties have subsequently deteriorated again.